Behavioral Bias Lab
All experiments

Metacognition

Overconfidence Effect

How well do you know what you know?

~90 secLichtenstein, Fischhoff & Phillips (1982)

Before a short general-knowledge quiz, predict your score. Afterwards, see how your actual performance compares to your prediction — and to the aggregate overconfidence gap.

Test your calibration

You will take a 5-question general knowledge quiz. Before you begin, predict the percentage of questions you'll answer correctly.

Research shows that most people are significantly overconfident — their predictions consistently exceed their actual performance.